By Gary Lanham
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January 3, 2023
If the COVID and post-COVID era made for interesting times, 2023 promises to be just as challenging – or exciting – depending on your tolerance for the unknown. Below are 12 predictions for the year ahead . . . 1. Home prices will hold in 2023. A shortage of homes in South Florida, combined with homes still selling at record levels, translates to strong pricing. Home prices will go up 3 to 4 percent because of low inventory. While people overpaid for homes in the last two years just to get in, home buying will be an even smarter call in the year ahead than during COVID. 2. Home inventory will shrink. The dilemma of Florida homeowners has been clear: if I sell, where am I going to move? Only homeowners forced to sell due to life events – divorce, death, recession and unemployment – will be motivated to sell. Others will stay put, putting downward pressure on inventory. 3. Foreign investors return to Florida. Political and economic instability and uncertainty across Latin America will continue to drive a flight of capital to the U.S., and particularly South Florida. Lenders flush with money will be eager to loan, meeting the needs of those foreign nationals looking for mortgages. 4. Fix-and-flip home activity will slow down in 2023. The high cost of real estate, coupled with inflation and ongoing supply chain issues, will take these investors out of the market as profitability decreases. 5. Mortgage Interest rates will drop. It’s curious how sometimes when the Fed raises the Federal Reserve rate, mortgage rates may drop. After unprecedented rate hikes over the past year, the Fed has indicated rate increases will slow in 2023. These will end up in the 5 percent range by the end of the year, calming borrower concerns and driving buyer enthusiasm. 6. The number of real estate transactions will go down. The year 2022 saw up to 25 percent fewer real estate transactions than 2021. The year 2023 will have even fewer real estate sales than 2022, as the market finds equilibrium. 7. Rental demand will grow. Fewer real estate transactions and low inventory for sale will fuel growing rental demand. This will cause further increases in rental rates, which are forecast to rise by up to 13 percent for the year. The interest on rent is 100 percent, meaning that you get nothing for your rent. You pay your landlord’s mortgage and, at the end of your rental term, you own nothing . . . so you might as well be paying 100 percent interest. 8. Investment properties will return to the market. These properties, especially Airbnb and other rental properties, will start to hit the market as investors recognize lower returns due to increased supply and lower short-term rental rates, as well as higher taxes and insurance premiums on non-homesteaded properties, and as consumers grow more cautious about their expenses in a questionable economy. 9. Fewer first-time home buyers. High home prices, coupled with increased interest rates, and again, economic uncertainty surrounding their budgets and income, will dampen buyer enthusiasm. Those first-time home buyers who do decide to buy will be pushed to less desirable areas. 10. Seller concessions will grow. The days of “as-is” home sales and waived inspections are over. Fewer buyers, coupled with higher inventory, will induce seller concessions, such as inspection-report repairs, purchase of mortgage rate buy downs, and other creative ways to stand out against other real estate listings. Buyers don’t care about the interest rate or the sales price; the buyers care about their monthly payment. 11. Seniors 62 or older will seek creative cash flow. Seeking a better, more stable retirement, seniors will explore ways to eliminate mortgage payments, increase cash flow and leverage their current residence to live in the home of their dreams through reverse mortgages or other options. 12. Say goodbye to Fort Lauderdale’s older homeowners. Seniors and retirees tired of the region’s congestion – and hoping to capitalize on home values – will cash out and move north. They’ll stay in Florida, but head to places like Stuart, Port St. Lucie, Vero Beach and The Villages. If you’re hoping to list and sell your home, the right realtor can help. As team leader for the Gary Lanham Group at Coldwell Banker Real Estate Fort Lauderdale Beach Office, Gary is a veteran listing agent skilled in the most complex transactions. He helps sellers get the most money in the shortest amount of time. Contact him at instagram.com/garylanhamgroup or 954-695-6518 .